Rethinking Growth in Vietnam: Green Growth, Degrowth, or Both?

Let's make it clear first thing: Degrowth is not about economic decline or hardship.

As ecological economist Giorgos Kallis (2018) clarifies: “Degrowth is not about sacrifice, but about redefining prosperity, more time, more community, more meaning, and fewer things.” 

Rather than rejecting innovation or development, degrowth promotes innovation within limits.

1. 

“When the Cranes no longer find their way home” was the title of a spotlighted article published in 2020 by Tuổi Trẻ. For the first time in recorded memory, Vietnam did not witness the return of the Eastern Sarus cranes, which had once migrated seasonally to the Mekong Delta in search of food and shelter. The disappearance of these iconic birds - a poignant loss, while symbolic, represented a deeper ecological unraveling. The conversion of wet grasslands into aquaculture ponds and rice fields, the misuse of agricultural chemicals, and poorly planned afforestation efforts have decimated natural habitats. Conservation scientists sounded the alarm, but their warnings were met with what one expert described as “stone-cold silence” (Tuổi Trẻ, 2020).

This silence reflects a broader systemic pattern. During a 2022 debate hosted by Oxford University's School of Geography and the Environment, Jason Hickel, author of Less is More, and Professor Samuel Fankhauser, a green growth advocate, explored the political viability of degrowth. Hickel argued that ecological overshoot and inequality demanded urgent degrowth. Fankhauser retorted, "If any politician openly supported degrowth, they likely wouldn’t be elected in the first place" (Oxford Smith School, 2022). In The doughnut Economics,  Kate Raworth captured this dilemma starkly in Doughnut Economics: “To question growth became the equivalent of political suicide” (Raworth, 2017, p.40). This revealed the deeply political nature of growth itself, not only in wealthy countries but especially more in developing nations like Vietnam. 

The country's development story over the past few decades has been widely praised, with GDP growth averaging 6-7% annually (Reuters, 2025). This growth has been instrumental in attracting foreign investment, and securing Vietnam’s place as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, a rising player in global markets. Today, GDP growth dominates policy discourse, public perception and becomes synonymous with national pride. 

This begs a similar question whether degrowth is desirable in Vietnam? The answer should not be a simple yes or no, but rather when, how, and what else could be explored and implemented. This paper will explore the practical realities of Vietnam's current approach to degrowth and offer recommendations for how Vietnam might begin to chart a more equitable, resilient, and ecologically sustainable course for the decades ahead.

Degrowth in Vietnam - a conversation that has barely begun

History matters - 150 years behind

To understand why degrowth remains such a politically sensitive, even an unthinkable, concept in Vietnam, it is necessary to step back and consider the country’s historical context. Vietnam's development trajectory differs sharply from that of the developed nations where concepts like degrowth and post-growth economics first emerged. While Western countries such as the United Kingdom, France, and the United States began industrialising as early as the late 18th and 19th centuries, Vietnam only embarked on its major economic reforms with the Đổi Mới policy in 1986. This means that Vietnam entered global industrialisation more than 150 years after the West.

In 1945, as World War II was coming to its end, famine in northern Vietnam claimed the lives of up to 2 million people,  nearly 10% of the population at the time (Gunn, 2011). While much of the developed world was entering an era of post-war reconstruction and unprecedented industrial growth, experiencing the "Golden age of growth" (Maddison, 2006, p. 24), Vietnam was still struggling for basic survival. 

By 1973, when early critiques of growth economics were being voiced in Europe , such as the famous Limits to Growth report published by the Club of Rome (Meadows et al., 1972, p. 8), Vietnam was emerging from decades of war, first for independence from France and later in war with the United States. The country’s immediate priority was not questioning growth, but rather rebuilding from devastation, unifying a divided nation, and meeting basic survival needs.

In 1986, Vietnam launched its major economic reform program known as Đổi Mới, opening its borders to international trade and transitioning from a centrally planned economy to a socialist-oriented market economy. At that stage, growth was unquestionable but a necessity, a tool for survival, stability, and poverty reduction (Beresford, 2008, pp. 221–243).

As of today, in 2025, after 50 years of independence, GDP growth is not only a policy goal but a source of national pride. News reports, political speeches, and public discourse constantly cite GDP figures as a symbol of success. A simple Google search for “Vietnam GDP” yields millions of results; searching for “degrowth in Vietnam” yields almost none.

In this context, it becomes clear why degrowth remains such a difficult conversation for Vietnam’s policymakers and citizens. For a country that has fought to overcome hunger, war, and isolation, growth is associated with survival, prosperity, and national progress. The idea of voluntarily limiting growth can easily appear threatening or unrealistic, both politically and culturally.

The mentality - Survival before sustainability - remains until today

In a country where survival has long taken precedence over prosperity, concepts such as sustainability, green growth, or degrowth have often felt distant or irrelevant to the daily concerns of most citizens. As Hickel observes in Less is More: “Growth is so deeply embedded in our economics and politics that the system can’t survive without it. Under capitalism, growth is not just an optional feature of human social organisation – it’s an imperative to which all are hostage” (Jason, 2020, p. 92). This statement resonates deeply with Vietnam’s socio-economic reality. For the majority of  Vietnamese, the primary concern remains access to jobs, housing, and income — not biodiversity loss or abstract notions of ecological boundaries. GDP growth, therefore, is often viewed as the golden ticket to stability and development. In Vietnam, that mentality has translated into a visible hunger for more construction, more highways, more factories, and more high-rise developments, all seen as symbols of national progress.

The societal response to the disappearance of Sarus cranes from Tram Chim National Park illustrates this stark contrast in priorities. The loss of the iconic bird species drew minimal public attention or policy discussion, generating only a handful of online comments. Meanwhile, news that Vingroup was proposing to build a massive highway connecting the north and south of Vietnam, sparked widespread public enthusiasm, millions of views, and extensive online debate - almost entirely positive (Reuters, 2024). This divergence is not surprising. For Vietnamese, the cranes symbolise nature, but the highway symbolizes jobs, investment, and the promise of economic security. The cranes may vanish, but the new infrastructure - even as it threatens to fragment ecosystems, displace species, and accelerate carbon emissions - promises tangible, immediate benefits: employment for construction workers, revenue for local businesses, and national prestige for policymakers. 

At the grassroots level, this growth-first mentality still persists. Tour guides in the Mekong Delta proudly explain to tourists how local communities profit by selling sand extracted from the river, often without awareness of the long-term environmental consequences. 

In such a climate, advocating for degrowth or ecological limits becomes politically and culturally challenging. How can policymakers persuade citizens to prioritize environmental sustainability when basic economic security remains fragile for so many? How could we expect people to resist the temptations of modern consumer culture? when businesses constantly design new ways to make us want more? When corporations are driven by growth, and consumers are driven by wants, not needs, isn’t degrowth just a utopian fantasy? As Tim Jackson writes in Prosperity Without Growth (2017), "The challenge is not just to reduce environmental impact but to transform the social logic that equates prosperity with endless material accumulation."

A Snapshot of the present - Growth at a high cost 

Vietnam's growth-centered model has also produced familiar side effects: rising inequality, environmental degradation, and overconsumption. As Tim Jackson writes in Prosperity without Growth (2017), “Questioning growth is deemed to be the act of lunatics, idealists, and revolutionaries. But question it, we must.” Vietnam now faces that very question. The country’s impressive GDP growth trajectory has come at a profound cost. 

Environmental Degradation

Air pollution has become emblematic of this imbalance. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City now rank among Asia’s most polluted cities. In 2019, PM₂.₅ exposure contributed to over 1,100 premature deaths annually in each city (Vuong et al., 2024). In 2025, Hanoi's PM₂.₅ concentration peaked at 266 µg/m³—11 times higher than WHO guidelines (Reuters, 2025). This crisis stems from Vietnam’s heavy reliance on coal, motorbike traffic, and unchecked industrial emissions.

Deforestation presents a subtler but equally destructive dynamic. While official statistics boast rising forest coverage, most new plantations are ecologically impoverished monocultures. Natural forests, rich in biodiversity, continue to shrink; 11.4% of forest area in regions like Nam Dong was lost between 1989 and 2020 (Dinh et al., 2023).

The Mekong Delta, the nation’s agricultural heartland, faces existential threats from saline intrusion, dam construction upstream, and industrial runoff. The 2020 drought- Vietnam’s worst in a century - has left 60% of the Delta vulnerable to permanent salinisation by 2050 (Nguyen et al., 2021; Minh et al., 2022).

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s rapid urbanization and e-commerce boom (valued at USD 16 billion in 2022; Statista, 2023) are generating unprecedented volumes of waste, overwhelming municipal waste systems ill-prepared for a consumer society.

Rising inequality - the urban and rural divide

Vietnam’s rapid growth hides deep-rooted inequalities. Since the 1990s, the urban–rural income gap has widened and remains significant (Cao & Akita, 2008). Cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City thrive with luxury real estate and finance, while rural provinces, especially those home to ethnic minorities, still lack access to quality healthcare, education, and infrastructure (Ha et al., 2019). Investment priorities reinforce this divide: while megaprojects like the North–South highway attract heavy funding, rural development is sidelined (Vietnam Development Report, 2023). Public discourse, dominated by visions of skyscrapers and industrial zones with towering chimneys, marginalizes concerns over environmental degradation and community resilience.

GDP may be rising, but as Sen (1999) reminds us, true development expands people’s freedoms, not just income.

Vietnam’ efforts to fix what’s broken - The journey toward sustainability

The journey as of now - Vietnam’s policy evolution on sustainability

Vietnam’s sustainability agenda has evolved incrementally but remains subordinate to growth imperatives. Following the Đổi Mới reforms of 1986, the 1993 Law on Environmental Protection was enacted, Vietnam’s first attempt to regulate environmental degradation (MONRE, 2005). Yet, early efforts were reactive, treating environmental damage as a technical problem rather than a systemic flaw of the development model.

In 2004, Vietnam adopted its Agenda 21, aligning national strategies with global sustainable development frameworks (Government of Vietnam, 2004). The National Green Growth Strategy (2012) marked a more explicit integration of economic and environmental objectives, followed by the Green Growth Action Plan (2014) and Vietnam’s first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submission under the Paris Agreement (2015).

Sustainability had been largely sidelined in Vietnam’s policy agenda until COP26, where Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh Vietnam committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 (World Bank, 2021; Do & Burke, 2023). These declarations have catalyzed institutional reforms and renewable energy initiatives. Yet, sustainability remains tethered to the growth paradigm, a strategy of "greening growth" rather than redefining prosperity.

The journey ahead - What else should been done

First, change the goal (Raworth, 2017, p.25), shift the mindset, understand and rethink Degrowth beyond misconceptions. 

The term degrowth often evokes immediate resistance, largely due to widespread misunderstandings of what it truly represents. In the public and political imagination, degrowth is frequently interpreted as economic decline, stagnation, unemployment, or even a return to poverty. This misunderstanding is particularly acute in developing countries like Vietnam, where economic growth has historically been synonymous with recovery from war, poverty alleviation, and national pride. Any proposal that appears to challenge GDP growth is thus easily framed as a threat to stability, prosperity, and social progress.

Hickel explains why this resistance is so deeply ingrained: “The thing about growth is that it sounds so good. It’s a powerful metaphor that’s rooted deeply in our understanding of natural processes: children grow, crops grow… and so too the economy should grow. But this framing plays on a false analogy. The natural process of growth is always finite.” Growth feels natural, even moral, because it is linked to life itself. To challenge growth is often seen as to challenge life, well-being, and hope, thus provoking strong emotional and political opposition.

However, degrowth is not about economic decline or hardship. As ecological economist Giorgos Kallis (2018) clarifies: “Degrowth is not about sacrifice, but about redefining prosperity, more time, more community, more meaning, and fewer things.” Rather than rejecting innovation or development, degrowth promotes innovation within limits. It advocates for closed-loop systems, waste reduction, product longevity, and regenerative economies that prioritize well-being over material throughput. As estimated by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, adopting circular economy models could unlock $4.5 trillion in global benefits by 2030. In this vision, development continues, but no longer at the cost of planetary stability. Degrowth challenges us not to do less, but to do better.

The next step is not to apply degrowth in isolation and rethink the priorities

Degrowth does not promise a one-size-fits-all fix, but a guiding principle for rethinking economic priorities within ecological limits. For Vietnam, whose economy spans agriculture, manufacturing, services, energy, services and transport, a sector-specific approach is essential. Applying degrowth where appropriate, while integrating complementary models. This hybrid strategy ensures ecological limits are respected without compromising sectoral functionality or national development goals.

Energy and Transport: Misalignment Between Ambition and Infrastructure

Vietnam’s green ambitions—such as leading electric vehicle (EV) production in Southeast Asia, are commendable, but stark contradictions persist in infrastructure and energy supply. As of 2024, coal still accounts for nearly 60% of the country's electricity generation (IEA, 2024), making Vietnam one of the most coal-dependent economies in the region. At the same time, the transportation sector, dominated by fossil fuel-powered vehicles, contributes to approximately 70% of national greenhouse gas emissions when combined with the energy sector (World Bank, 2023).

The rise of domestic EV manufacturers, such as VinFast, signals industrial innovation, but the supporting ecosystem remains underdeveloped. Charging infrastructure is scarce outside of major cities, and in many regions, the electricity powering EVs and its production is still generated from coal. As of 2020, there were over 65 million registered motorcycles in Vietnam, equaling around two-thirds of the population. This figure does not account for the continued growth in 2024, during which five new motorbikes are sold every minute (VnExpress, 2025). This raises critical questions about the true sustainability of the transition: should the priority be expanding EV adoption, or first addressing the overwhelming presence of motorbikes on the streets?

Agriculture: Growing More, Depleting Faster

Agriculture employs over 27% of Vietnam’s workforce and contributes around 12% to GDP (GSO, 2023), yet it generates over 33% of national greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from rice cultivation and fertilizer overuse (FAO, 2022). In the Mekong Delta, unsustainable practices have led to severe ecological degradation: one study found that soil fertility in intensive rice areas has declined by 50% in just two decades (Nguyen et al., 2021).

Export-driven models have prioritized volume over resilience. Degrowth reframes agriculture around sufficiency and ecological health, not maximum output. Shifting toward agroecology, crop diversification, and local food systems would reduce emissions while safeguarding livelihoods.

Without rethinking how and why we grow, Vietnam risks exhausting the very ecosystems that feed it.

Manufacturing: Output-Rich, Resource-Hungry

Manufacturing drives over 25% of Vietnam’s GDP and 85% of exports (World Bank, 2023), yet this growth comes at high environmental cost. Industrial zones are responsible for more than 70% of major river pollution (MONRE, 2022), and the sector remains energy- and resource-intensive. Much of this output serves foreign markets, reinforcing what Hickel (2020) calls the “colonial drain”, where the Global South bears environmental burdens to sustain Global North consumption. One striking example is the 2016 Formosa steel plant disaster, when a Taiwanese FDI project caused mass marine life deaths across 200 km of Vietnam’s coast due to toxic waste dumping, devastating livelihoods and ecosystems. 

Degrowth urges a shift: not just toward producing less, but toward choosing better, prioritising smaller-scale, low-impact investments over large, extractive ones that risk long-term harm.

Services & Tourism: Growth Without Stewardship

Vietnam’s booming tourism industry, accounting for nearly 10% of GDP pre-COVID, has driven rapid service sector growth. However, this expansion often overlooks ecological and cultural limits. Mass tourism hotspots like Da Nang, Ha Long, and Sapa have seen unchecked hotel development, environmental degradation, and loss of local heritage. A study by Le et al. (2022) found that in some coastal provinces, tourism-related waste rose by over 300% between 2015 and 2020, outpacing local capacity to manage it.

The focus on volume, more arrivals, more resorts, more revenue, has come at the cost of environmental resilience and community well-being. Degrowth reframes this trajectory: fewer tourists, better-distributed benefits, and investments in ecotourism and cultural preservation over extractive, high-footprint tourism. In short, Vietnam must ask whether more visitors always mean better outcomes, or whether a slower, more sustainable model could deliver greater long-term value.

Consumption & Retail: More shops, more sales, but do we really need more stuff?

Vietnam’s retail and e-commerce sector has exploded over the past decade, driven by rapid digitalization and a rising consumer class. As of 2024, online shopping orders in Vietnam are placed approximately every 2.5 seconds, with fashion items consistently ranking among the top three categories, far above essentials like education or healthcare (Vietnam E-commerce Whitebook, 2024). The number of online shops registered on platforms like Shopee and Lazada has grown by over 200% since 2020, and Vietnam now ranks among the top five e-commerce markets in Southeast Asia by volume (Statista, 2023).

But this retail boom comes at a steep ecological cost: fast fashion imports, excessive packaging, and a surge in single-use plastics. According to Nguyen et al. (2022), urban household waste in Ho Chi Minh City rose by nearly 30% from 2018 to 2023, correlating directly with spikes in e-commerce activity and consumer goods turnover. If retail continues to serve as a mirror of social aspiration, then perhaps it's time to ask: do we really need that many new clothes, every month, every season, every sale?

Don’t break it to fix it: the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders

Preventing damage is always cheaper, and far more effective, than repairing it. Restoring degraded ecosystems is not only costly but often slow and incomplete. It can take decades to rehabilitate deforested land, centuries to rebuild topsoil, and in some cases, freshwater aquifers or biodiversity loss may never fully recover. The Mekong Delta, for instance, is already facing irreversible salinization in some areas due to upstream damming and over-extraction (Minh et al., 2022).

Given this, all stakeholders must act preemptively, not reactively. Policymakers need to restructure economic incentives, embed ecological thresholds into national planning, and redefine success with multidimensional indicators, not GDP alone. As Tim Jackson (2017) argues, “Prosperity transcends material wealth; it resides in the quality of our lives, relationships, and environment.”

Businesses must shift away from growth-at-all-costs. As Varoufakis (2023) contends in Techno-Feudalism, modern capitalism locks firms into extractive models. True leadership means decoupling profit from environmental harm, prioritising circularity, transparency, and long-term resilience over quarterly gains.

Consumers, too, play a critical role. It’s not just about buying less, but buying better, valuing durability, repairability, and sufficiency. Reclaiming agency in a consumption-driven system means asking not just “Can I afford this?” but “Can the planet?” since the damage, once done, may be too costly to undo.

Food for thoughts

Vietnam’s growth miracle is real, but so are its costs. Degrowth is not an anti-development agenda, but a call to redefine success. It urges us to value regeneration over extraction, resilience over speed, and well-being over consumption.

As Jackson reminds us, “Another world is possible.” The question is: does Vietnam have the vision to choose it? So one day, the Cranes can return. 

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Disclaimer: I confirm that the content of this work is my original creation. I have used ChatGPT by OpenAI as a supportive tool for refining language, clarifying structure and grammar. However, the final arguments, conclusions, and overall composition reflect my own thinking, analysis, and academic judgement.